ClimateGate Software. Garbage In, Garbage Out, and a Garbage Disposal in the Middle
"Shannon Love at Chicago Boyz has written a superlative examination of just how bad "the most important computer programs in the world" at Hadly CRU actually are in Scientists Are Not Software Engineers.
While the human element of deception, deletion, and good old fashion "dumbth" are on display in the hacked emails, Love points out..."
I see this in my line of work all the time. Scientists are decidedly NOT software engineers.
One danger, particularly in statistical-type programming where the correct answer is not known, is that a scientist will debug a program until the program gives the answer he or she expects.
Note I didn't say "till there are no bugs" or "till it gives the right answer." The program is debugged until the output matches the expectations of the scientists. Once it does, there is little incentive to examine the software further.
It's like a chunk of gravel on the highway. It gets bounced around with each passing car until it finally gets thrown off the road where it comes to rest. Statistical software can get bounced around until it gives the answers the scientist wants. The software is still deficient, but its deficient in a way that reinforces the scientist's views.
A second problem is "analysis shopping". There is no one way to perform statistical analysis. If the method of statistical analysis is not decided BEFORE the data is received, there is a tendency to try many different techniques until the scientist finds one that gives the answer he or she wants.
All data, software, and methodology details in climate research must be published on the internet for everyone to see and use. The stakes are too high to do otherwise.
Yes this should be the nail in coffin for AGW.
I am not as dismissive of AGW as other people are. I suspect - but am not certain - that there is considerable sound research supporting the idea.
I am, however, horrified at how politicized it's become and how science has been debased by it. There has been an enormous amount of dishonesty, not least by the IPCC. The waters have been so muddied that I just ... don't ... know. Thus my suggestion for more transparency.
If I was a betting lagomorph, I would say that AGW is real, but is no where near the extent that the alarmists say it is.
George Monbiot - the journalist who was one of the main cheerleaders for the IPCC alarmists - is going to be on The Agenda tonight.
For a journalist so deeply riding the AGW gravy train, he was perhaps the one who openly expressed deepest shock at the depth of the CRU deception. He said has admitted that the fraud is shocking and horrible - still believes we should drink the Kool-Aid.
I dunno Rabbit, it is starting to smell like the Sierra Club mass starvation scare, acid rain and Y2K all rolled into 1.
A (slightly revised) comment I left on some blog somewhere. They had been discussing the wrongness of the "hack", and computer code. [I don't believe it was a real "hack".]
-------
Hey!
IF any of the OT be a crime in the sense of evil, in the sense of transgressing the _Logos_, or the _Wisdom_, in the sense of obscuring intra-Trinititarian Love, in the sense of diminishing the inertia of “_Kairos tou poiesai to Kyrio_”, THEN the betrayal of Judas completes an algorithm in the same sense as an Al Gore “rhythm”.
Which means that (approx syntax)…
begin
if {perfidy + betrayal := truth}
then {deceit + hack := truth}
end
or, two wrongs can be a right. No?
Blah, blah, blah ... from the usual suspects:
A grassroots movement says that the countries that created the climate crisis should pay for the costs of adapting to a more hostile ecology.
http://tinyurl.com/y94qq6k
While we're at it, I really think those countries who reap the benefits of western science and technology but who did not participate in the enlightenment and industrial revolution should perhaps be paying royalties to those that did.
I'm afraid Canada is kind of a tweener in that respect, so we will be paying some to England, France, Germany, Italy, and so on. Perhaps we can negotiate a break seeing as we fought in defense of many of these countries. Regrettably the Germans are not likely to be amongst them.
Noami Klein ... dumbest Canadian ever.
The Computer. The new perpetual motion con for the 21st century.
A better visualisation of the HadCRU problem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCISlfory98
Cheers
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